Can the First Few Moves Predict a Chess game? Using Logistic Regression to Forecast Chess Outcomes

Can the outcome of a chess game be predicted from just the first few moves?Turns out, a machine learning model can — with 86% accuracy. I tried to find out by looking for patterns in games that had already been played. I analyzed over 170,500 games from Chess.com, covering both Blitz and Classical formats, and focused on players rated above 1900 who used a range of different openings. To keep things manageable and meaningful, I filtered the data to include only stronger players and summarized the first ten moves into a single pattern-based variable called win_rate, based on how often similar moves had led to wins in the past. Then I used logistic regression to predict whether Whiteor Black would win or lose. The model used each player’s rating, the strength of the opening, and the early move pattern—and it was able to predict the winner with up to 86% accuracy.

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